Monday, June 20, 2011

2nd Credit Crisis around the corner?

If you have been following the Europe Debt Crisis, you know that there is big trouble brewing.  The next couple of days will be interesting as Greece will have a vote of confidence in the ruling party.  Greece will default, ( it maybe this week or months down the road, it could be a soft or hard default) and this would drag countries like Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland down as well.  This would lead to another credit crisis ala 2008.

From Zero Hedge

According to flashing headlines, the CDO better known as the European Financial Stability Fund will be increased to guarantee €780 billion in the future, up from €440 billion currently (the same EFSF which currently sees Greece, which has no money left at all, guaranteeing €12.4 billion of European bailouts). This was largely expected previously as many had noted that the EFSF in its current form is insufficient to cover the liabilities of Spain once the country is swept away to the Greek insolvency tsunami. Alas, for the EURUSD which is seeing this as good news, and has surged on the announcement, this development actually means that Europe is taking proactive steps to fund Spain imminently when the house of cards start falling potentially as soon as Tuesday night. This is nothing but a Spain, and then Italy, backstop. However, for Italy to be covered, expect the total covered amount to be €1. 5 trillion.

How does this affect housing in Saskatoon?
The 3 C's would be affected negatively if the Greece contagion spreads.
Credit, Confidence, Commodities would all drop and this is what has propped up house prices here in the last couple of years.  Keep an eye out for the Greece train wreck this week.

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