Friday, July 22, 2011

This is what happens when a consumer spending economy stops peak spending

The US consumer was once famous for their spending habits.  Consumer spending was almost 70% of their economy.  But their increase in spending over much of the 2000's was because of their huge credit bubble. This is what happens when consumers deleverage.

From the Atlantic
Here's a short story with big implications. In May 2008, six months after the Great Recession set in, a typical family earning less than $90,000 a year spent $105 daily. One year later, in May 2009, they spent $59 a day.

Then in May 2010, they spent $59 a day. In May 2011, they also spent $59 a day.

Why is employment stuck above 9 percent? I just told you.

With Canadian consumer spending amounting to about 65% of the Canadian economy and households in Canada in more debt than the Americans at the peak of their bubble, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out what will happen to the Canadian economy when consumers start to deleverage.  It won't be as bad as the US, but it still won't be pretty.

3 comments:

  1. You wrote:

    "it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out what will happen to the Canadian economy when consumers start to deleverage."

    But again by making assumptions...
    Spending on what? Food & necessities? Consumer goods? Everything? We sure don't have 9% unemployment on this side of the border.

    Since you are so confident in your abilities to discern real issues on here... tell us how long for you to shut down your blog after there are still no trace, evidence or irrefutable proof of a real estate downturn?

    Squidster

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  2. "We sure don't have 9% unemployment on this side of the border."

    You are right, it's "only" 7.4%.
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/start-debut-eng.html

    How much public and private debt was spent to keep it down to only 7.4%?


    "no trace, evidence or irrefutable proof of a real estate downturn?"

    Got any more kool-aid to share?
    Mark Carney has warned us about some housing markets in this country acting irrationally like speculative financial markets. Oh yeah, the some of the Banks are forecasting slower sales and falling prices. Economists who forecast the US and Global housing bubbles are forecasting declines in Canada.

    Over 40 countries have experienced the bursting of their housing bubbles. All had the same theme. House prices ran away from wages and inflation and were built on debt. Same as in Canada.

    We have had housing bubbles burst in this country before. There are many markets in this nation experiencing the bust right now. Just recently, a SFH in Calgary peaked at 505k in 2007 and then collapsed to 413k within a year and half. It has since risen to come close to the peak. But Calgary is a prime example that it is debt that launched house prices. A healthy real estate market does not experience extreme swings in a short period of time.

    But hey, you know all this stuff already as you have " fair and balanced commentary", right?

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  3. Squidster... At least Kevin backs up everything he says with actual statistics and press releases. It seems that those who have such a deep support of insanely high house prices and who say they'll stay high forever have nothing factual or historical to back that claim up. I don't know what you do Squidster, but if you're not a realtor or a developer or one of the other crooks who benefit from this retarded real estate market right now, you're probably just some idiot who bought a house during this time and you don't want to see your "investment" depreciate so much WHEN the market slides.

    ReplyDelete