Tuesday, November 29, 2011

CMHC: Growth of Mortgage Credit Slowing. That Is True, But It Is Still Growing At 7%

CMHC is saying that the growth of mortgage credit is slowing.
From the globe and mail
The rate at which Canadians have been racking up new mortgage debt has slowed in recent months, lending credence to the theory that the country’s housing market will hold up, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. suggests. 
“The level of household debt remains a concern but there are encouraging signals,” it said.
The growth of mortgage debt has significantly decelerated since March, particularly in recent months, it said.
Here is how it looks.  It has not "significantly decelerated."

While they are right that mortgage debt has slowed in the last 4 months. It has not been by much.
I doubt the recent mortgage rules have had much to do with "slowing mortgage credit growth".  If anything, I see a consumer who is bloated with debt getting ready to deleverage had more to do with "slowing mortgage credit growth."

The slowing of mortgage credit was so negligible it did not deserve a press release, but I am thinking that a release was put out to say " we do not need more mortgage tightening" which we all know could not be further away from the truth.

This is how mortgage loosening and mortgage tightening compare with mortgage credit growth year over year since 2005.





1 comment:

  1. Garth sent me here. Really excellent work - keep it up.

    ReplyDelete