While the
average wage for Saskatchewan in September increased by 6.9% compared to a year earlier, the average wage for Saskatoon increased by 2.7%, which is less than inflation. We also know the S
askatoon job market is down over 6000 jobs or 4.3% from the spring 2010 peak, the participation rate is now at 68.5%, down from spring 2010 peak of 73.7% and the unemployment rate is at 5.7%, which is up from the high 3's from a few years ago.
I'm not saying this is a bust, but it's hardly a boom when looking at jobs and wages over the last couple of years, especially since Saskatoon is leading or near the lead when looking at population growth. But there are quite a few projects in the pipeline that will happen in Saskatoon shortly and as long as the household credit spigots are kept wide open, this just might all be a blip for now.
With that said, let's take a quick look at how Saskatoon compares to other major cities in Canada.
Saskatoon's average house price in October was higher than Regina's and Edmonton, but to be fair to Edmonton, they are down considerably from their peak. For instance,
a single family house in Edmonton is now down $63,131 or 14.8% from the peak. Have they reached bottom? Or is a second leg downward upon them around the corner?
The average house price in Saskatoon is higher than in Edmonton or Regina but the average wage is considerably lower in Saskatoon by 11% and 8% respectively.
*Note this is just one month's data, but the average difference between these cities over the last year shows that Edmonton is anywhere from 6% to 14% higher while Regina is anywhere from 4% to 12% higher than Saskatoon.
Vancouver is in absolute bizarro land. Saskatoon is at the upper end of second tier cities with high valuations of average house price to average wage.
Saskatoon's unemployment rate is right in the middle, not boom levels, but not bust levels either.
While I have known the job market in Saskatoon has been regressing over the last year or so, I did not realize the drop in the participation rate was so pronounced. But with the increase of population I should have known better. Duh! To lose over 5% in just a couple of years is significant and is worth paying attention to going forward.
Nice work.
ReplyDeleteYou and your blog are awesome. It's so nice to see someone with sense in such a bullshit world.
ReplyDeleteI have to say I'm completely surprised at the participation rate stat. Glad you posted it as it's not something I've seen data on before.
ReplyDeleteDo you have some historical data on this and any explanation as to why it is so much lower than Regina, Calgary and Edmonton? My only guess would be that we have a higher number of high earning people traveling to remote job sites that require the spouse to stay at home to raise the family.
Your thoughts?
Anonymous,
ReplyDelete"My only guess would be that we have a higher number of high earning people traveling to remote job sites that require the spouse to stay at home to raise the family."
While there are a few people that do these, it is not much. If it was, we would see a higher average weekly wage but we don't.
In 2008, less than 2% of the working population that lived in Saskatoon actually worked in mining, oil and gas. That % may have moved up a bit since, but not much.
Saskatoon's participation rate was at 73.7% just last spring. Browsing sample months from Stats Canada during 05-09 show a participation rate between 70% and 75%. Most months are between 72% and 73%.
I believe the answer can be found in the growth of our population. I may work on a post about this, but the info I have is that 46% of increase is from international migration ( many of these are students), higher inflow of aboriginal people to the city which have a very high rate of unemployment, a higher birth rate - death rate than recent history and intraprovincial migration which is mostly college and university students. Yes, there is some inter provincial migration, but overall, it looks like the type of growth in our population is dragging down the participation rate. Add a shrinking labor market and that is why the participation rate is as low.
Great website. The Star Phoenix should be paying you for a weekly update, rather than the boosterish stories they publish.
ReplyDeleteI do enjoy comments like ""My only guess would be that we have a higher number of high earning people traveling to remote job sites that require the spouse to stay at home to raise the family."
No one but a Saskatoon resident, looking on data that shows wages and participation are lower, and that Regina, Calgary and Edmonton clearly have stronger job markets, would conclude that is must be because people in Saskatoon just make so much.
Could it just possibly be Saskatoon's economy is above average, but not in the top tier, with Calgary or Edmonton, nor the next tier, with Regina and Ottawa?
Then again, that would take an admission that your $400,000 average bungalow in Saskatoon may be a bit overvalued...
Regina has always been second only to Calgary in average wages, and much higher than Saskatoon for over 40 years now...look it up. My brother in Saskatoon is feeling the pinch right now as his house in Briarwood just sold for $16,000 LESS than what he paid for it in 2008 (bought at $636, sold for $620). That loss is much higher when you consider all the cash he spent finishing the landscaping and concrete work. Even at these low interest rates the mortgage was killing him, so he had no choice. I warned him not to spend so much to live here...
ReplyDeleteBrian
Saskatoon
You should really write a letter to the editor
ReplyDelete"While the average wage for Saskatchewan in September increased by 6.9% compared to a year earlier, the average wage for Saskatoon increased by 2.7%, which is less than inflation. We also know the Saskatoon job market is down over 6000 jobs or 4.3% from the spring 2010 peak, the participation rate is now at 68.5%, down from spring 2010 peak of 73.7% and the unemployment rate is at 5.7%, which is up from the high 3's from a few years ago."
That would surprise a lot of people
I am not sure how many people read this page, perhaps a few hundred? But to the other 220,000 in Saskatoon, your wage figures may come as a huge shock!
(I've already used up my December letter, will see if it gets published - Henselmeier)
I have not really thought about writing a letter to the editor. Maybe I will.
ReplyDeleteAnybody who wants to borrow material, stats or graphs to use, is free to do so.
Yeah, a bigger shock is if you take out the to 5% in wage earners in saskatoon that average wage drops down from 800's weekly to about 5-600 weekly. Then take average single bed apt rent at 900, take the 18% tax from your paycheck and you are spending half a single earners income on rent.
ReplyDeleteFrom the people i know the average hourly wage is 13-18 an hour.