And if we adjust for inflation since 1980
we see that many cities took decades to recover from the 80's bust ( ahem Prairie cities). When we index the numbers it all comes out quite clear.
Moving on...
Here is how average house prices have climbed in Eastern and Central Canada since 1990.
we see that many cities took a beating when we adjust for inflation. And if we take a quick peak at the National average ( adjusted for inflation) it looks like a "soft landing" from 1990 to 2000 but in reality it was the lowering of interest rates as to what cushioned the Canadian real estate market when it came in for a "soft landing" during the 90's.
There won't be a lowering of interest rates for a "soft landing" this time. Where is the Bank of Canada gonna go this time? Negative interest rates?
House Price To Income
Here is the house price to income for select cities across Canada since 1990 to 2009.
When I get numbers for 2010 and 2011 I will put them up. But I can almost guarantee that every city except Edmonton have higher price to income ratios now than in 2009. Vancouver is in absolute bizarro land, the rest of Canada is not too far behind.







Many quote Vancouver's high price-to-income as evidence that it must eventually correct - indeed it has been way above the 3-3.5x ratio people believe to be "normal" for 20 years!
ReplyDeleteI find the suggestion that the bubble will pop because interest rates have nowhere to go to be much more compelling. I just wonder what other sectors (i.e. consumer electronics, cars etc..) will look like when businesses finally absorb the fact that the next interest rate decrease is not coming.